The National Debt Crisis (or lack thereof)

Let me start by displaying the frame of the arguments presented in the wider media.

1) The US will default if it does not continue borrowing on aug 2, 2011
2) If we don't borrow MORE money our credit rating will go down
3) We need to borrow money to pay our creditors
4) People who want to cut spending are radicals/regressives who want to kill old people and the poor

You hear it every time you turn on the news "Will the US default?" "What will happen to YOUR 401K?" and so on and so forth. So here I will give an accurate explanation of two ways this can go.

Scenario 1) We borrow more money:

Upon borrowing more money and INCREASING the deficit and national debt; we have not addressed the fundamental issues but we have camouflaged the sucking wound that is the escalating debt. MAYBE our credit rating has statyed up...but maybe not since we haven't actually addressed the debt. Spending continues and it gorws even more out of control and more intertwined with our system eventually leading to a near collapse only avoided by hugely spiking interest rates and inflating our money until it is valueless as we purchase back the debt with zimbabwe-like currency.

Scenario 2) We cut spending immediately:

The budget automatically balances and we are back to 2002 levels of spending necessarily repealing Obama-care and a lot of budget increases over the years. The recession deepens for a short period, but we continue making payments on the debt even paying some of the principle back so our rating stays high. We slowly bring interest rates up to soak up the extra dollars and strengthen US currency in relation to others abroad.

oil prices begin to drop and the recession lifts as we live within our means with a government that is considerably smaller but no less effective. Many public sector workers are now private sector workers which results in a net gain in treasury receipts without the sucking on the govt teat for paychecks. Businesses cease fearing more govt intervention and begin to invest and innovate. Wages rise and jobs are created.

Then people forget and do more stupid borrowing

I give up and my head asplodes.

Is Obama Throwing the Fight?

Afghanistan: The Good War (TGW henceforth) as we have been told since Obama even thought of running for President is becoming tougher and tougher for the United States to fight day by day.

So the President says that he needs to weigh all his options on fighting this war that he supports. Erm...ok go for it. So he has two main options: Add more troops, or don't.

If he doesn't add more troops then he has to change the entire strategy of how this is being fought. That means more aggressive rules of engagement, constant assaults across national borders into Pakistani territory and likely other bordering nations, confronting Iran more actively and actually fighting this like a war rather than a police action.

Gen. McChrystal thinks that adding 40K more troops will help. And even that isn't a sure thing because we have to depend on a corrupt national government, half-trained Afghani soldiers and fight against local warlords whose money flows from the opium trade...which makes heroin that is consumed mainly in the USA and Western Europe. Our own decadence is biting us in the ass in real time.

President Obama may or may not be thoughtfully engaging in the process of reviewing the strategy or formulating a new one ( I hope he is), but he is failing to lead/govern in the meantime as he is quite close-lipped on what exactly he is thinking. This may have flown back in the days before cable TV, the internet and satellites; but he needs to be engaged more in his own press conferences and make his intent clear.

Does he intend to prosecute this war to SOME victorious condition? Or is he looking to disengage like we did in Vietnam, or as the Russians did two decades ago?

In my opinion he isn't sure. I think he really wants to push his domestic agenda (as observed here http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/02/curl-obama-distractions-sideline-afghan-plan/


And some think that he might be willing to let soldiers die to push healthcare. That is a rather callous observation and would make him quite evil. I don't think he is evil.

And assuming his press secretary is truthful...

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that walking away isn't a viable option to deal with a war that is about to enter its ninth year.

"I don't think we have the option to leave. That's quite clear," Gibbs said.


Well ok then, but that doesn't answer the real question. The question is now are we going to stay and lose or stay and win?

McChrystal is being rather shortsighted in being so public about his views and bordering on insubordination. Yes he knows better than the President on how to prosecute a war, but the President is his CnC and a general ought not pick a fight against his boss who can up and fire him for such comments as he has been making no matter his intentions. McChrystal has foot-in-mouth disease...and his mouth is writing checks that his body certainly can't cash. So far the President being merely irked is a bad sign to me...showing that he isn't really serious.

If I were the President I would 1) be in more consistent communication either through the Pentagon or directly with McChrystal so he doesn't feel hung out to dry.

2) Have a press conference specifically on Afghanistan
3) Announce that we are closing down our base in Germany to re-open it in Afghanistan and move all troops there.
4) Annihilate the bad guys with extreme prejudice.

Part 2: Homunculi Come of Age

At some undetermined point in the future the first industries will either give birth or way to larger heavy industries. I shall call the 5 major super-conglomerates by some nice names:

1) WASP Industries
2) Haelstrom Medical
3) Hyperion Logistics LLC
4) Blunt Force Trauma LLP
5) TTFN Insurance Co.

WASP industries will in my world dominate, though not entirely corner the market on heavy mineral extraction, exploration and prospecting. In addition WASP industries will process many of the 0 gravity manufactured specialty chemicals and build the large shipyards.

Haelstrom Medical will be a division of a large terran bound pharmaceutical company. Tailored 0-gravity medicines, gene therapy drugs, and artificial conception technologies will first be tailored here and marketed .

Hyperion Logistics will be like the UPS of space but also deliver hazardous materials and transport bulk mineral shipments to planetary trans-shipment points for processing on the surface. In addition they will formthe back bone of a merchant marine for the solar system.

Blunt Force Trauma LLC are Private Space Security "Advisors"

TTFN will make sure eveyones' lives in space are insured as well as property.

Creating the Telescopic Humonculi of Ur

In order to create the THoU we must first examine what we need for a successful plan to enter and stay in the realm of our solar system.

So let us make several rules:

1) No need for faster than light travel for thousands of years
2) Even thinking about warp drive will get you executed by the laws of thermo dynamics and conservation
3) Stven Hawking is dead and not even Michu Kaku can figure out how to create a gravity drive

Ok so I've dashed all of the turbo nerd hopes for interstellar flight leaving us constrained to this solar system for the time being.

Phase 1:
Entry Level Space Travel - Creating a market and building infrastructure.
Step 1: The Market:
a: The Market currently only allows for the very wealthy person to enjoy a few moments of weightlessness, or billion dollar companies paying to shoot off some satellites.
b: The Market is a virtual Oligopoly where a few satellite and rocket manufacturers have the majority of industrial, commercial and government contracts.
c: The Market is expanding, though slowly, due to lack of significant regulatory barriers and the new wealth of internet entrepreneurs and high tech specialists and private incentives such as the Ansari X-Prize.

Step 2: The Old Guard
a: NASA pioneered space flight and high altitude/high speed flight in the United States and rocketry in general. NASA has a great deal of territory that as an organization it might feel inclined to protect.
b: The gub'mint will want its piece of the pie and a slew of new taxes will undoubtedly be levvied in the name of protecting consumers or some other such nonsense.
c: NASA will continue to do a great deal of public work and expand our scientific horizons for some time to come and is an important partner in the future of space exploration.

Step 3: The New Guard
a: Blue Origin started by Jeff Bezos (founder of Amazon.com) has begun adopting an approach towards implementing improved cargo carrying in resuable launch vehicles.
b: Virgin Galactic has licensed the design of the next generation of personnel carriers designed by Scaled Composites (winners of the Ansari X-Prize).

The two firms have begun planning their launch sites and business will boom. Outer Space has unlimited potential for wealth. The risk is high, but not unmangeable. One day in the near future the average man will not think it too odd that he could take at least a short hop in to orbit and back for a vacation trip. Several generations down the road we may see the first tourist hotels in orbit. One man has begun testing of his inflatable space station modules, and a scalemodel was successfully deployed. The first stations may indeed be balloons. Reach for the heavens and you just may touch the skies...more to come

new space blog

Here I shall post everyting I think about space...fiction and fact